Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: The Envelope Please ... Who Will Strike Gold?With gowns delivered, speeches written and the red carpet rolled out on an unusually cold day in Hollywood, Tinseltown's elite are prepared for the biggest night of their year.All that remains is seeing who will go home with an Oscar at tonight's 83rd annual Academy Awards.In an awards season that has seen plenty of turnaround for the top films, many feel that the hottest race is for best picture, between the of-the-moment study of the Internet age, "The Social Network," and the historical British drama, "The King's Speech."ABC News contributor Chris Connell weighed in with some predictions on the race:"After months of campaigning and shifts of fortune, 'The King's Speech' is the best picture front-runner, stutter-stepping past 'The Social Network,' the favorite a few weeks ago."The other hot race to watch is once again for the best actress prize, where Annette Bening, 52, is at the front of the pack, vying again against an actress more than 15 years her junior. Though this time it's not Hilary Swank she's competing against -- who she has lost to twice now -- but 29-year-old Natalie Portman."Best actress remains a hard-to-pick pas de deux with co-favorites Natalie Portman from 'Black Swan' and four-time nominee Annette Bening in 'The Kids Are All Right,'" Connelly said.More magazine movie critic Alison Bailes has her money on Bening for the award, despite Portman's barrage of awards, including the Screen Actors Guild Award and Golden Globe for best actress.5 tips for making your 2011 Oscar predictionsA few random observations, as you fill out your Oscar ballot ...Whose job is it anyway?A highly scientific Oscar-job survey, conducted by myself, indicates that musicians, criminals, writers and waitresses (a motley crowd that sounds like the setup for a nicely moody if rather crowded film noir) have been the roles most likely to win Academy Awards in the last 20 years. This is not particularly helpful for this year's nominees, which include no musicians, writers or waitstaff. Three criminals lurk among them — played by Javier Bardem in "Biutiful," Jeremy Renner in "The Town" and John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone" — but nobody thinks they will win; this seems to be a year for the law-abiding.Queens have won twice in recent memory — Helen Mirren in "The Queen" and Judi Dench in "Shakespeare in Love" — which might give Helena Bonham Carter an edge for "The King's Speech," and Hilary Swank's win for playing a boxer in "Million Dollar Baby" (along with Morgan Freeman as a former boxer in the same movie) could portend an award for Christian Bale in "The Fighter." To the best of my knowledge, nobody has ever won an Oscar for playing a delusional ballerina, as Natalie Portman looks likely to for "Black Swan," but I look forward to a new wave of crazy-dancer movies inspired by her.Overall depressivenessThere have been years — most notably 2008, whose Best Picture nominees included "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood" and "Atonement" — where many of the contenders for the top awards seem to be wallowing in gloom. Overall, things are a little more uplifting this year, but special mention should be given to Best Picture contenders "Winter's Bone" (in the subcategory of Horrifyingly Desolate Winter Landscapes), "True Grit" (Plucky Children Getting Walloped), "127 Hours" (Lifelike Loss of Limb), "Toy Story 3" (Adorable Characters Placed in Truly Upsetting Peril) and "The Fighter" (Melissa Leo's hair).There will be corsetsTradition holds that period movies will always win the costume design Oscar; however, this year it looks likely that "The King's Speech" and "True Grit" will take a well-upholstered back seat to the fanciful designs of "Alice in Wonderland" (created by Northwest native Colleen Atwood). If only Helena Bonham Carter and her vast Red Queen head could present it.Speaking of HBC ...The delightful Ms. Bonham Carter, she of the excellent BAFTA acceptance speech (see page H1), has a rare distinction this year: She's associated with four different movies nominated for Oscars, appearing in "The King's Speech," "Alice in Wonderland" (three nominations), "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I" (nominated for art direction and special effects), and doing voice work for "The Gruffalo" (nominated for animated short film). If all of these films win big, we may have to name a new Oscar rule for her. Or maybe just have her pick the winners and host the thing.The insurmountableNobody ever guesses the live-action and animated short film categories correctly, do they? I never do. This year I've seen all the nominees, and that didn't help a bit. In general, it's good form to choose the one that sounds the most depressing; that's usually the winner. Nonetheless, I'm going out on a limb with "God of Love" in the live-action category, just because it was charming. Sometimes, you have to guess with your heart. Happy balloting!source :http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/oscar-ballot-2011-academy-award-preview/story?id=13013292http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/movies/2014320360_oscarjobs27.htmlRelated searches:2011 oscar predictions, oscar predictions 2011, oscars, oscar ballot 2011, oscars 2011